Keywords
Comparative advantage
Time series
How to Cite
Abstract
Soybean is a fundamental support in the production and agricultural exports of the United States, Brazil and Argentina, consolidating its position as one of the main crops globally. The three counries have experienced a sustained increase in both production and exports of this crop, positioning them as leaders in international markets and strengthening their global competitive advantage. The analysis of competitiveness indicators reveals not only the comparative advantages in international soybean trade, but also the capacity of these countries to optimize their production processes and take advantage of scale, which reinforces their strategic position in global value chains. By applying the Lafay Index to data obtained from the U.S., Brazil and Argentina, we identify the comparative advantages which allow the three studied countries to be leading soybean exporters. The time series models estimated for the three countries were ARIMA (0, 1, 0), but with drift for Argentina. These models are known as “Random Walk”. Therefore, in the case of the United States and Brazil, the projections would be the last calculated Index. These three countries lead the world soybean trade thanks to their specialization and competitive advantages with China as their main market, which makes this oilseed a key element of their agricultural export economies.
References
Ablin, E. R., & Paz, S. (2004). Política comercial y organismos genéticamente modificados: el mercado mundial de la soya y el caso de Argentina. En: Bárcena, A.; Katz, J.; Morales, C. y Schaper, M. (Eds.) Los transgénicos en América Latina y el Caribe: un debate abierto. Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL). Santiago de Chile: Naciones Unidas. Disponible en: https://ideas.repec.org/b/ecr/col015/2410.html
Banco Mundial. (2022). Cuatro décadas de reducción de la pobreza en China. Disponible en: https://spanish.china.org.cn/txt/2022-04/02/content_78145876.htm
Burgos, M. (2023). El triángulo de la soja: China Estados Unidos - Argentina (2001-2019) [Tesis doctoral, Universidad Nacional de Quilmes]. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Nacional de Quilmes. Disponible en: https://ridaa.unq.edu.ar/
China International Import Expo. (2023). China’s food import. Nation develops growing appetite for food imports. Disponible en: https://www.ciie.org/zbh/en/news/exhibition/news/20231207/42163.html
Durán Lima, J. E., & Álvarez, M. (2011). Manual de comercio exterior y política comercial: Nociones básicas, clasificaciones e indicadores de posición y dinamismo. Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL). Disponible en: https://repositorio.cepal.org/server/api/core/ bitstreams/28a92c0e-9b69-4df8-afb7-9bd811b9a639/content
Dwevedi, A., & Kayastha, A. M. (2011). Soybean: A multifaceted legume with enormous economic capabilities. (Ng, Ed.), Soybean Biochemistry, Chemistry and Physiology. Ng. DOI: 10.5772/15505 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). (2022). FAOSTAT: Base de datos estadística de la FAO. Disponible en: https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data
Figueira, S. R. F., & Galache, V. O. (2023). Análise comparativa da competitividade das exportações de soja em grão do Brasil, Estados Unidos e Argentina. Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural, 61(1), e245403. Disponible en: https://doi. org/10.1590/1806-9479.2021.245403 García-Fernández, F., Domínguez Jardines, A. L., & Galván Vera, A. (2018). Cadena de valor y sistema de innovación de la soya en el noreste de México. Ciudad México: COLOFON/UAT.
Hyndman, R. J., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2021). Forecasting: Principles and Practice. Disponible en: https://robjhyndman.com/uwafiles/fpp-notes.pdf
Instituto Interamericano de Cooperación para la Agricultura (IICA). (2022). Informe anual de 2021 del IICA. Disponible en: https://apps.iica.int/SReunionesOG/Content/Documents/CE-2022/cf00fc8b-9051-4258-8053-711abbe54d76_dt741_informe_anual_de_2021_del_iica.pdf
Infobae. (2024). 2024 será el año de los retos medioambientales para Brasil, desde la emergencia yanomami hasta la deforesta- ción en el Cerrado. Disponible en: https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2024/01/13/2024-sera-el-ano-de-los- retos-medioambientales-para-brasil-desde-la-emergenciayanomami-hasta-la-deforestacion-en-el-cerrado/
Mesquita, F. C., & Lemos Alves, V. E. (2013). Globalización y transformación del paisaje agrícola en América Latina: las nuevas regiones de expansión de la soja en Brasil y la Argentina. Revista Universitaria de Geografía, 22(2), 11-42.
OECD/FAO (2017), OCDE-FAO Perspectivas Agrícolas 2017- 2026, OECD Publishing, Paris. Disponible en: https://doi. org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2017-es
R Core Team (2024). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. Disponible en: https://www.R-project.org/
Trigo, E. J. (2011). Veinte años de cultivos genéticamente modificados en la agricultura argentina. Consejo Argentino para la Información y el Desarrollo de la Biotecnología (ArgenBio).
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) (2020). FY 2020 agency financial report. USDA. Disponible en: https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/FY_2020_Agency_Financial_Report.pdf
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). (2022). Soybean exports: The role of the United States in global trade. Washington, DC: USDA. Disponible en: https://fas.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2023-05/2022-Yearbook_0.pdf
World Bank. (2018). World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet). Disponible en: https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/283421538517311854-0050022018/original/CMOPinkSheetOctober2018.pdf
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Copyright (c) 2025 Luis Javier Legarreta-Sosa, Francisco García-Fernández, Martín Alfredo Legarreta-González