GEOGRAPHICAL DEFINITION OF RETURN PERIODS OF ANNUAL RAINFALL IN THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD AREA OF THE GULF OF MEXICO

Guajardo-Panes, Rafael Alberto; Díaz-Padilla, Gabriel; Sánchez-Cohen, Ignacio; Barbosa-Moreno, Finlandia

doi:10.5154/r.rchsza.2012.06.020

ISSN e: 2007-4018 / ISSN print: 2007-3828

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Vol. XIII, issue 1 January - June 2014

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GEOGRAPHICAL DEFINITION OF RETURN PERIODS OF ANNUAL RAINFALL IN THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD AREA OF THE GULF OF MEXICO

DELIMITACIÓN GEOGRÁFICA DE PERIODOS DE RETORNO DE LLUVIA ANUAL EN LA ZONA DE BARLOVENTO Y SOTAVENTO DEL GOLFO DE MÉXICO

Rafael Alberto Guajardo-Panes; Gabriel Díaz-Padilla; Ignacio Sánchez-Cohen; Finlandia Barbosa-Moreno

Keywords: Goodness of fit, Gumbel distribution, return period, interpolation.

10.5154/r.rchsza.2012.06.020

Received: 19-06-2012
Accepted: 23-08-2013
Available online:
Pages:15 - 20

Abstract Highlights

This paper presents the development of a methodology for calculating return periods of annual rainfall in the windward and leeward regions of the Gulf of Mexico. The data used were daily records of 147 National Weather Service stations that were validated and processed to perform the Kolmogorov-Smirnov nonparametric goodness-of-fit test for the Gumbel distribution. Probabilities and levels of rainfall were calculated at each station, in return periods of 2, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 and 100 years by the inverse transformation of the Gumbel distribution. Timely information was applied to the spatial interpolation thin plate smoothing spline method to plot isolines. The images showed that the levels of rainfall in different return periods have greater variation in the windward (50-350 mm) area; while in the case of the leeward region, rains are kept between 50 and 100 mm annually. This methodology can be used as a tool in defining and developing contingency plans to provide quick solutions to the population located in vulnerable areas affected by an event of rain.

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