Keywords
climatic variation
climatic scenarios
temperature
How to Cite
Abstract
Climate change is one of the main problems facing agriculture because of the alterations it causes in the agroclimate. There has been an increment in temperature in Mexico, which has caused changes in agroclimatic variables, such as cold hours (CH) in the winter period. The characterization of the accumulation of CH is important for making decisions about the species that can be grown, since it allows minimizing risks in the production of deciduous fruit trees. The climate change trend for Mexico indicates a general increase in maximum temperature. The objective of this research was to analyze the trend of CH in the northwestern zone of the State of Mexico, from 1985 to 2020 and two future scenarios: to 2041. The results indicate that the areas of highest CH accumulation extended from the center to the north of the zone until the winter period 2015-2016, following this trend in both scenarios until the year 2041. Furthermore, that the areas of greatest accumulation will be found in small areas in four municipalities: Atlacomulco, San Felipe del Progreso, Jocotitlán and Jiquipilco. Also, the average temperature of the area will increase by 1.6 ºC, with higher temperatures recorded in Acambay and Temascalcingo.
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