The Fourth Transformation. Probabilities of success of the Morenista government

Abstract

Most of the Mexican population has placed its trust in the new government that will be in office during the period 2018-2024. If it is convinced during that time of the positive advances of the program, there is a high probability that the approach and the new way of attacking the socioeconomic and political problems may continue for a period longer than six years. Hence the objective of the work: to analyze, from the economic point of view, the probabilities of success of the current government in the realization of its program during the sexennium. The analysis of external factors, as well as the actions and results of the various actors that make up and influence the country’s economic environment, and the macroeconomic analysis of global supply and demand were used. It is concluded that significant changes in the country are foreseeable in the medium and long term, but in the short term the changes are quite limited. The success or failure of the government in office is still uncertain. The functioning of the proposed changes, which are underway, requires time to mature in most of them; other impacts are already beginning to be noticeable.