Keywords
global warming
assisted colonization
decoupling between genotype and environment
How to Cite
Abstract
Mature individuals of Agave cupreata are harvested to produce an artisan distilled alcoholic beverage (mescal). The objective of this study was to estimate the potential decoupling of suitable habitat due to climatic change, between the populations and the climate for which they are adapted. Therefore, the contemporary (average 1961-1990) and future (decade centered in the year 2030) climate for 12 localities was estimated, where natural populations are distributed, using a spline climate model, based on outputs from the Canadian General Circulation Model and intermediate emission scenario A1B. Average temperature estimates of the 12 provenances for contemporary climate was 19.1 °C and precipitation estimates was 961 mm. Predicted for year 2030 was 20.5 °C and 833 mm, with a temperature increment of 1.4 °C and a precipitation decrease of 13.3 %. Results indicate that sui¬table climate for A. cupreata will occur at 175 to 225 m of higher elevations than the locations were populations are presently. Therefore, It is suggested to establish ex situ conservation and commercial plantations under the conditions mentioned above, as assisted migration management measure for adaptation to the predicted climatic change.
References
Breshears, D. D., Cobb, N. S., Rich, P. M., Price, K. P., Allen, C. D., Balice, R. G., …Meyer, C. W. (2005). Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought. Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences, 102, 15144-15148. doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0505734102
Christensen, J. H., Hewiston, B., Busuioc, A., Chen, A., Gao, X., Held, I., …Whetton, P. (2007). Regional climate projections. In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, …H. L. Miller (Eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Forth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 847-940). United Kingdom and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Colunga-García Marín, P., & Zizumbo-Villarreal, D. (2007). El tequila y otros mezcales del centro-occidente de México: Domesticación, diversidad y conservación de germoplasma. In P. Colunga- García Marín, L. Eguiarte, A. Larqué, & D. Zizumbo-Villarreal (Eds.), En lo ancestral hay fututo: Del tequila, los mezcales y otros agaves (pp. 113-131). México D.F: CICY-CONACYT-CONABIO-SEMARNAT-INE.
Crookstone, N. L. (2012). Custom Climate Data Requests. In Research on Forest Climate Change: Potential Effects of Global Warming on Forests and Plant Climate Relationships in Western North America and Mexico. USA: Moscow Forestry Sciences Laboratory, Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest service. http://forest.moscowfsl.wsu.edu/climate/
Gentry, S. H. (1982). Agaves of Continental North America. Tucson, Arizona: University of Arizona.
Hutchinson, M. F. (2004). ANUSPLIN version 4.3. User guide. Canberra, Australia: Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, The Australian National University.
Illsley, C., Vega, E., Pisanty, I., Tlacotempa, A., García, P., Morales, P., …Calzada, M. (2007). Maguey papalote: Hacia el manejo campesino de un recurso colectivo en el trópico seco de Guerrero, México. In P. Colunga-García Marín, L. Eguiarte, A. Larqué, & D. Zizumbo-Villarreal (Eds.), En lo ancestral hay futuro: Del tequila, los mezcales y otros agaves (pp. 19-338). México D.F.: CICY-CONACYT-CONABIO-SEMARNAT-INE.
Ledig, F. T., Rehfeldt, G. E., Sáenz-Romero, C., & Flores-López, C. (2010). Projections of suitable habitat for rare species under global warming scenarios. American Journal of Botany, 97(6), 970-987. doi: https://doi.org/10.3732/ajb.0900329
Martin, M. P., Peters, C. M., Palmer, M. I., & Illsley, C. (2011). Effect of habitat and grazing on the regeneration of wild Agave cupreata in Guerrero, Mexico. Forest Ecology and Management, 262(8), 1443-1451. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2011.06.045
Martínez-Palacios, A., Gómez-Sierra, J. M., Sáenz-Romero, C., Pérez-Nasser, N., & Sánchez-Vargas, N. M. (2011). Genetic diversity of Agave cupreata Trel. & Berger. Considerations for its conservation. Revista Fitotecnia Mexicana, 34(3), 159-165. http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?pid=S0187- 73802011000300006&script=sci_arttext
Mátyás, C. (2010). Forecasts needed for retreating forests. Nature, 464, 1271. doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/4641271a
Mátyás, C., Berki, I., Czúcz, B., Gálos, B., Móricz, N., & Rasztovits, E. (2010). Future of beech in Southern Europe from the perspective of evolutionary ecology. Acta Silvatica et Lignaria Hungarica, 6, 91-110.
Peñuelas, J., Oyaga, R., Boada, M., & Jump, A. S. (2007). Migration, invasion and decline: Changes in recruitment and forest structure in a warming-linked shift of European beech forest in Catalonia (NE Spain). Ecography, 30, 830-838. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2007.0906-7590.05247.x
Rehfeldt, G. E. (2006). A spline model of climate for the western United States. Fort Collins, Colorado, USA: USDA Forest Service.
Rehfeldt, G. E., Crookston, N. L., Sáenz-Romero, C., & Campbell, E. (2012). North American vegetation model for land-use planning in a changing climate: A solution to large classification problems. Ecological Applications, 22(1), 119-141. doi: https://doi.org/10.1890/11-0495.1
Rehfeldt, G. E., Ferguson, D. E., & Crookston, N. L. (2009). Aspen, climate and sudden decline in western USA. Forest Ecology and Management, 258, 2353-2364. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2009.06.005
Sáenz-Romero, C., Guzmán-Reyna, R., & Rehfeldt, G. E. (2006). Altitudinal genetic variation among Pinus oocarpa populations in Michoacán, México. Implications for seed zoning, conservation, tree breeding and global warming. Forest Ecology and Management, 229, 340-350. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2006.04.014
Sáenz-Romero, C., Rehfeldt, G. E., Crookston, N. L., Duval, P., St-Amant, R., Beaulieu, J., & Richardson, B. A. (2010).
Spline models of contemporary, 2030, 2060 and 2090 climates for México and their use in understanding climate-change impacts on the vegetation. Climatic Change, 102, 595-623. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9753-5
Sáenz-Romero, C., Rehfeldt, G. E., Duval, P., & Lindig-Cisneros, R. A. (2012). Abies religiosa habitat prediction in climatic change scenarios and implications for monarch butterfly conservation in Mexico. Forest Ecology and Management, 275, 98-106. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2012.03.004
Sáenz-Romero, C., & Tapia-Olivares, B. L. (2008). Genetic variation in frost damage and seed zone delineation within an altitudinal transect of Pinus devoniana (P. michoacana) in Mexico. Silvae Genetica, 57, 165-170. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2012.03.004
Statistical Analysis System (SAS) Institute Inc. (2004). SAS/STAT 9.1 User’s Guide. Cary, North Carolina, USA: SAS Institute Inc.
Viveros-Viveros, H., Sáenz-Romero, C., Vargas-Hernández, J. J., López-Upton, J., Ramírez-Valverde, G., & Santacruz-Varela, A. (2009). Altitudinal genetic variation in Pinus hartwegii Lindl. I.: Height growth, shoot phenology, and frost damage in seedlings. Forest Ecology and Management, 257, 836-842 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2008.10.021
Zizumbo-Villareal, D., & Colunga-García Marín, P. (2007). La introducción de la destilación y el origen de los mezcales en el occidente de México. In P. Colunga-García Marín, L. Eguiarte, A. Larqué, & D. Zizumbo-Villarreal (Eds.), En lo ancestral hay futuro: Del tequila, los mezcales y otros agaves (pp. 85-112). México D.F: CICY-CONACYT-CONABIO-SEMARNAT-INE.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Copyright (c) 2012 Revista Chapingo Serie Ciencias Forestales y del Ambiente