The objectives of this research were: 1) To assess the probable impacts of climate change (CC) on the rainfed agriculture (RA) in Aguascalientes, Mexico based on the model HadGEM2-ES 8.5 in the Near Future, 2015-2039; and 2) to determine the magnitude of the impacts of CC on the productive aptitude of RA through the analysis of the variability of mean annual rainfall (MAR). The study unit comprises the territory of Aguascalientes whose predominant climates are semi-dry [BS1 kw, BS1 hw(w)] and temperate subhumid [C(wO)], and the MAR is 526 mm. The evaluation of the potential impact of CC on RA of Aguascalientes was performed by the analysis of edaphic and topographic characteristics under which this activity is practiced and complemented with an analysis of the MAR for the near future supported with SPOT satellite imagery. The results show a probable increase of 20 %; this does not necessarily guarantee a CC positive impact on maize production, because there are other factors associated with edaphic and topographic conditions and land use politics that determine its success.

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