FOUNDATIONS FOR THE ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE RISK IN DRY AREAS

Sánchez-Cohen, Ignacio

doi:10.5154/r.rchsza.2013.09.003

ISSN e: 2007-4018 / ISSN print: 2007-3828

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Vol. XIII, issue 2 July - December 2014

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FOUNDATIONS FOR THE ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE RISK IN DRY AREAS

FUNDAMENTOS PARA EL ANÁLISIS DE RIESGO CLIMÁTICO ENZONAS ÁRIDAS

Ignacio Sánchez-Cohen

Keywords: Statistics, uncertainty, modeling, processes, water balance.

10.5154/r.rchsza.2013.09.003

Received: 2013-09-30
Accepted: 2014-05-30
Available online: 2014-12-15
Pages:87-102

Abstract Highlights

Rain-fed agriculture in dry areas is subject to climate uncertainty, making it a risky endeavor. Simulation models that consider this uncertainty are the best option for assessing the probability of occurrence of rainfall and/or runoff events (risk). This paper analyzes the theoretical statistical-mathematical foundations needed for modeling and simulating hydrologic processes in dry areas. A stochastic method to compute rainfall and runoff events for rainwater harvesting systems in regions with little or no instrumentation is also proposed. Moreover, the need to perform sensitivity analysis of simulation models and the calibration process is considered.

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